Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Power Bull Call history Q2 2015 - Refer PDF report in website for upcoming market views.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case. Robert G. Allen
Market performance in the 2nd quarter was a”BIG” turbulence and provided wide opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted priced. We strongly recommended many stocks to buy on dips during the periods of market correction. Chinese devaluation, Greece issues, FED rate hike and Oil price corrections stand to be the major reason for the market fall. Indian RBI Repo rate cut was delayed and surprised by governor later with 50 basis point cut. Automobile emission scam from Volkswagen majorly impacted the stocks like Motherson sumi and the same cascaded to other auto ancillary stocks as well. The direction of the market will depend on upcoming earnings and hope good earnings will be rewarded more in the increasing points. FII pulled out close to 17985 cr from Jul till September (Q2). This is one of the highest profit booking in the recent quarter (Q1 2015, Q4 2014). Our domestic investment looks strong on every correction and this makes our market robust and further to control the freefall from NIFTY 7600.

Current Quarter - Q3 – Oct, Nov and Dec:
We anticipate the upcoming quarter to be sluggish due to many holidays in place. Many companies will have less budget during this quarter and the spending will be lower than normal level. New initiatives using big capital will be kicked off by 1st week of December. However on the other side, retail spending this quarter will be high, especially stocks like jewellery segment (Titan), retail showrooms and FMCG will make good show in the upcoming quarter. FMCG Promotion on boosting the product may affect the profit margin but sales on each of these companies will be great.
Car Segment: As the New Year is  about to roll on, many car showrooms will try to push the sales, which may affect the profit and some customers are more interested to buy after  the New Year and that buying delay decrease the sales as well. Overall we are maintaining neutral on Car segment.

BSE SENSEX  as on Oct 11 2015
Year
High
Low
Close
PE Ratios
PB Ratios
Dividend Yield
2015-2016**
29094.61
24833.54
27079.51
20.92
2.96
1.35
2014-2015
30024.74
22197.51
27957.49
18.73
2.94
1.29
2013-2014
22467.21
17448.71
22386.27
17.38
2.78
1.5
2012-2013
20203.66
15748.98
18835.77
17.09
2.97
1.64
2011-2012
19811.14
15135.86
17404.2
18.5
3.42
1.41


FPI/FII Net Investments  on Oct 11 2015
Month
Equity
Debt
Total(cr)
2014
Total(cr)
Up/Down
January
12919
20769
33688
Jan-2014
13323
Up
February
11476
13088
24564
Feb-2014
12741
Up
March
12078
8645
20723
Mar-2014
31663
Up
April
11721
3612
15333
Apr-2014
418
Up
May
-5768
-8504
-14272
May-2014
33778
Down
Jun
-3344
1737
-1608
Jun-2014
30705
Down
Jul
5319
4
5323
Jul-2014
36046
Down
Aug
-16877
-647
-17524
Aug-2014
22134
Down
Sep
-6475
692
-5784
Sep-2014
20972
Down
Oct**
1607
406
2013
Oct-2014
16732
**
Total
22656
39802
62456






Q2 Result Views:
We are positive on last quarter and expecting nice result on Pharma, Bank and IT. Bank should post positive results due to the decrease in repo rate cut. IT stocks will perform due to correction in rupees and more profit margin in general.  Cement sector should require more macro changes for demand.  Chinese currency devaluation may impact the book order for Indian Capital goods. So we are not positive on capital goods as well.
Q2 Quarter Overview (2nd qtr 2015):
Q2 2015 faced continuous downtrend carried over from Q1. NIFTY breached the support of 7700 points and creates little panic, however it has been quickly rolled and steady flow continued later. Q2 earning is very important to test NIFTY above 8500 points. We consider the lower limit for NIFTY should be 7600 and upper limit should be 8550 points. Topping up Sensex 28250 points required very good earnings to the EPS of 1350+.
·         Sensex and NIFTY faced close to 5%. The correction exceed to 10% during peak fall.
·         SEBI Recognized Power Bull as an “Independent Financial Fiduciary”.
·         Very first time Cash market calls are reduced and increased in derivatives due to market volatile.
·         Market will be firm and looking limited upside until earning for the company substantiate the same for PE growth.
·         Bullish on FMCG, Pharma, Bank and IT. Stay away from Steel sectors. Macro sentiments should change to go for cement sectors
·         Introduced new concept as “PB Pick” conveys our managers love to keep in portfolio for long