How many millionaires
do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my
case. Robert G. Allen
Market performance in the 2nd quarter was a”BIG” turbulence and provided wide
opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted priced. We strongly recommended many
stocks to buy on dips during the periods of market correction. Chinese
devaluation, Greece issues, FED rate hike and Oil price corrections stand to be
the major reason for the market fall. Indian RBI Repo rate cut was delayed and
surprised by governor later with 50 basis point cut. Automobile emission scam
from Volkswagen majorly impacted the stocks like Motherson sumi and the same cascaded
to other auto ancillary stocks as well. The direction of the market will depend
on upcoming earnings and hope good earnings will be rewarded more in the
increasing points. FII pulled out close to 17985 cr from Jul till September
(Q2). This is one of the highest profit booking in the recent quarter (Q1 2015, Q4 2014). Our domestic
investment looks strong on every correction and this makes our market robust
and further to control the freefall from NIFTY 7600.
Current Quarter - Q3 – Oct, Nov and Dec:
We anticipate the upcoming quarter to be sluggish due to many holidays in place. Many companies will have less budget during this quarter and the spending will be lower than normal level. New initiatives using big capital will be kicked off by 1st week of December. However on the other side, retail spending this quarter will be high, especially stocks like jewellery segment (Titan), retail showrooms and FMCG will make good show in the upcoming quarter. FMCG Promotion on boosting the product may affect the profit margin but sales on each of these companies will be great.
Car Segment: As the New Year is about to roll on, many car showrooms will try to push the sales, which may affect the profit and some customers are more interested to buy after the New Year and that buying delay decrease the sales as well. Overall we are maintaining neutral on Car segment.
BSE SENSEX as on Oct 11 2015
|
||||||
Year
|
High
|
Low
|
Close
|
PE Ratios
|
PB Ratios
|
Dividend Yield
|
2015-2016**
|
29094.61
|
24833.54
|
27079.51
|
20.92
|
2.96
|
1.35
|
2014-2015
|
30024.74
|
22197.51
|
27957.49
|
18.73
|
2.94
|
1.29
|
2013-2014
|
22467.21
|
17448.71
|
22386.27
|
17.38
|
2.78
|
1.5
|
2012-2013
|
20203.66
|
15748.98
|
18835.77
|
17.09
|
2.97
|
1.64
|
2011-2012
|
19811.14
|
15135.86
|
17404.2
|
18.5
|
3.42
|
1.41
|
FPI/FII
Net Investments on Oct 11 2015
|
||||||
Month
|
Equity
|
Debt
|
Total(cr)
|
2014
|
Total(cr)
|
Up/Down
|
January
|
12919
|
20769
|
33688
|
Jan-2014
|
13323
|
Up
|
February
|
11476
|
13088
|
24564
|
Feb-2014
|
12741
|
Up
|
March
|
12078
|
8645
|
20723
|
Mar-2014
|
31663
|
Up
|
April
|
11721
|
3612
|
15333
|
Apr-2014
|
418
|
Up
|
May
|
-5768
|
-8504
|
-14272
|
May-2014
|
33778
|
Down
|
Jun
|
-3344
|
1737
|
-1608
|
Jun-2014
|
30705
|
Down
|
Jul
|
5319
|
4
|
5323
|
Jul-2014
|
36046
|
Down
|
Aug
|
-16877
|
-647
|
-17524
|
Aug-2014
|
22134
|
Down
|
Sep
|
-6475
|
692
|
-5784
|
Sep-2014
|
20972
|
Down
|
Oct**
|
1607
|
406
|
2013
|
Oct-2014
|
16732
|
**
|
Total
|
22656
|
39802
|
62456
|
|
|
|
Q2 Result Views:
We are positive on last quarter and expecting nice result on
Pharma, Bank and IT. Bank should post positive results due to the decrease in
repo rate cut. IT stocks will perform due to correction in rupees and more
profit margin in general. Cement sector
should require more macro changes for demand.
Chinese currency devaluation may impact the book order for Indian Capital
goods. So we are not positive on capital goods as well.
Q2 Quarter
Overview (2nd qtr 2015):
Q2 2015 faced continuous downtrend carried over from Q1.
NIFTY breached the support of 7700 points and creates little panic, however it
has been quickly rolled and steady flow continued later. Q2 earning is very
important to test NIFTY above 8500 points. We consider the lower limit for NIFTY should be 7600 and upper limit should
be 8550 points. Topping up Sensex 28250 points required very good earnings
to the EPS of 1350+.
·
Sensex and NIFTY faced close to 5%. The
correction exceed to 10% during peak fall.
·
SEBI Recognized Power Bull as an “Independent Financial Fiduciary”.
·
Very first time Cash market calls are reduced
and increased in derivatives due to market volatile.
·
Market will be firm and looking limited upside
until earning for the company substantiate the same for PE growth.
·
Bullish on FMCG, Pharma, Bank and IT. Stay away
from Steel sectors. Macro sentiments should change to go for cement sectors
·
Introduced new concept as “PB Pick” conveys our
managers love to keep in portfolio for long
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