2016 Begins with Blood Bath.

Just  a week gone in 2016 and the Nifty tanks  4% with the sign of strong bearish.  We anticipate the correction will be recovered based on the reversal of Crude oil price and budget forecast.

Crude oil price is the major concern to for the huge correction in the global sentiments which creates cascading effect to our market as well.  Last day crude oil break the major support of 35$ per barrel and now searching for the best support nearby.

In this best opportunity we recommend to pick fundamentally good stocks which is fairly valued by market with “Margin of Safety” price. Following “SECTORS” are lucrative to us - Media,  IT , FMCG and Pharma. Bank sector will be more attractive when rupee gets strong. Avoid stock which are technically in trend but valued high like GM Breweries, Arrow Coated plus others for time being. You can accumulate once storm is over.

 

  NIFTY New Support at 7550 points

Top 5 Watch Out Stocks for 2016

Market tanks in bigger way due to China concern. In long run the market outlooks positive to us. Upcoming earning and crude oil movement on price raise can give good hope for 2016.

Power Bull identified TOP 5 Stocks to watch out on 2016. The stocks are selected based on many parameters and subject to change based on Macro sentiments.

We expect NIFTY will test 8700 points by mid of this year.

Disclaimer: Investing on TOP 5 involves high risk and required continuous analysis. We recommend TOP 5 as watch out and price movements are subject to market risk.

Best Wishes
Narayanan
SEBI Recognized - Research Analyst

Power Bull Call history Q2 2015 - Refer PDF report in website for upcoming market views.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case. Robert G. Allen

Market performance in the 2nd quarter was a”BIG” turbulence and provided wide opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted priced. We strongly recommended many stocks to buy on dips during the periods of market correction. Chinese devaluation, Greece issues, FED rate hike and Oil price corrections stand to be the major reason for the market fall. Indian RBI Repo rate cut was delayed and surprised by governor later with 50 basis point cut. Automobile emission scam from Volkswagen majorly impacted the stocks like Motherson sumi and the same cascaded to other auto ancillary stocks as well. The direction of the market will depend on upcoming earnings and hope good earnings will be rewarded more in the increasing points. FII pulled out close to 17985 cr from Jul till September (Q2). This is one of the highest profit booking in the recent quarter (Q1 2015, Q4 2014). Our domestic investment looks strong on every correction and this makes our market robust and further to control the freefall from NIFTY 7600.

Current Quarter - Q3 – Oct, Nov and Dec:

We anticipate the upcoming quarter to be sluggish due to many holidays in place. Many companies will have less budget during this quarter and the spending will be lower than normal level. New initiatives using big capital will be kicked off by 1^st week of December. However on the other side, retail spending this quarter will be high, especially stocks like jewellery segment (Titan), retail showrooms and FMCG will make good show in the upcoming quarter. FMCG Promotion on boosting the product may affect the profit margin but sales on each of these companies will be great.

Car Segment: As the New Year is  about to roll on, many car showrooms will try to push the sales, which may affect the profit and some customers are more interested to buy after  the New Year and that buying delay decrease the sales as well. Overall we are maintaining neutral on Car segment.

BSE SENSEX  as on Oct 11 2015
Year	High	Low	Close	PE Ratios	PB Ratios	Dividend Yield
2015-2016**	29094.61	24833.54	27079.51	20.92	2.96	1.35
2014-2015	30024.74	22197.51	27957.49	18.73	2.94	1.29
2013-2014	22467.21	17448.71	22386.27	17.38	2.78	1.5
2012-2013	20203.66	15748.98	18835.77	17.09	2.97	1.64
2011-2012	19811.14	15135.86	17404.2	18.5	3.42	1.41

FPI/FII Net Investments  on Oct 11 2015
Month	Equity	Debt	Total(cr)	2014	Total(cr)	Up/Down
January	12919	20769	33688	Jan-2014	13323	Up
February	11476	13088	24564	Feb-2014	12741	Up
March	12078	8645	20723	Mar-2014	31663	Up
April	11721	3612	15333	Apr-2014	418	Up
May	-5768	-8504	-14272	May-2014	33778	Down
Jun	-3344	1737	-1608	Jun-2014	30705	Down
Jul	5319	4	5323	Jul-2014	36046	Down
Aug	-16877	-647	-17524	Aug-2014	22134	Down
Sep	-6475	692	-5784	Sep-2014	20972	Down
Oct**	1607	406	2013	Oct-2014	16732	**
Total	22656	39802	62456

Q2 Result Views:

We are positive on last quarter and expecting nice result on Pharma, Bank and IT. Bank should post positive results due to the decrease in repo rate cut. IT stocks will perform due to correction in rupees and more profit margin in general.  Cement sector should require more macro changes for demand.  Chinese currency devaluation may impact the book order for Indian Capital goods. So we are not positive on capital goods as well.

Q2 Quarter Overview (2nd qtr 2015):

Q2 2015 faced continuous downtrend carried over from Q1. NIFTY breached the support of 7700 points and creates little panic, however it has been quickly rolled and steady flow continued later. Q2 earning is very important to test NIFTY above 8500 points. We consider the lower limit for NIFTY should be 7600 and upper limit should be 8550 points. Topping up Sensex 28250 points required very good earnings to the EPS of 1350+.

·         Sensex and NIFTY faced close to 5%. The correction exceed to 10% during peak fall.

·         SEBI Recognized Power Bull as an “Independent Financial Fiduciary”.

·         Very first time Cash market calls are reduced and increased in derivatives due to market volatile.

·         Market will be firm and looking limited upside until earning for the company substantiate the same for PE growth.

·         Bullish on FMCG, Pharma, Bank and IT. Stay away from Steel sectors. Macro sentiments should change to go for cement sectors

·         Introduced new concept as “PB Pick” conveys our managers love to keep in portfolio for long

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