Power Bull Call history Q4 2015 - PDF link provided

Dear Investors,

I never had a policy; I have just tried to do my very best each and every day - Abraham Lincoln
Thank God, We surveyed!!  Market continued to perform bearish till Feb, 2016. On Mar 2016 the bullish reversal  kick off started and many undervalued stocks are bought at great deal of price. Overall performance of market on 4^th quarter was bearish.

We played little safe on first two months as the market movement is not predictable. As we communicated in the last quarter newsletter, energy stock will kick off soon as OPEC started initiating the production cut to keep the oil price firm. In Q4 oil price has gained close to 30% from the lowest low whereas energy stocks are not awarded much due to more CESS per ton (Revised from Rs 4500 to Rs 3600). As an analyst we were expected the CESS cut would be close to Rs 2500 or below as the oil price trading at the cost of 2004. Statistically the price has been fixed high from Rs 2500 to Rs 3600 from central for the same cost of crude oil. At this moment we are anticipating surge in oil price gives more confidence on picking energy stocks as bottom catch. 

Read our detail report on below link:

http://www.powerbullstocks.com/pdf/4thQtrCallhistory2015PowerBull.pdf

Best Wishes,

Power Bull

SEBI Recognized - INH200001483 & & AMFI Recognized - 107713

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Power Bull Call History - Q3 2015 - Oct, Nov and Dec.

Date: Jan 17 2016
Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you react to it - Charles R. Swindoll
Performance of market on 3rd quarter is mute except little noise in the upside and downside. But 2016 will be hard to us due to many global events like crude oil and Chinese uncertainty can bring catastrophic effect to the Indian market plus global as well. We haven’t seen any measure taken from OPEC to contain the oil price and the recent inventory details from Germany and US has confirmed the supply of crude oil is increased. Pressure on corporate to run the business is high where as realization is very less or none. Indian government had taken appropriate measures to cut the CESS for oil companies to see realization. This helps energy stocks to fall further though crude oil price is in steep correction. We believe the market continue to perform weak and reversal on market will be kick started by end 1st quarter 2016. Though the sign of “Market Crash” is high but it can be easily contained by taking appropriate measures on oil supply and demand. We anticipate this will definitely happen in near future due to huge pressure on from body corporate to countries and that will fall on OPEC finally to take action at any cost. This will happen in a course of 3 months time frame from now to reach conclusion. Bank sectors are getting weak due to NPA and weaken rupee. Many repo rate cut from RBI decrease the return on interest to bank from customers.

Current Quarter – Q4 – Jan, Feb and Mar:

We anticipate the upcoming quarter to be hard due to economic turbulence.  We are seeing new lower levels in NIFTY provided if oil price correction is not fixed. As new initiatives will be kicked on we can see progress on IT, Media and infra (after budget). FMCG will continue to perform in the same manner will 10 to 15% growth.  Energy stocks are good to accumulate now in the long horizon of 2 years plan.

Q3 Quarter Overview (3^rd qtr 2015):

·         Q3 2015 was roller coaster performance from market and closed flat at the end of December 2015 but confirmed "2016" will be hard for us.

·         AMFI Recognized "Power Bull" as an Independent Mutual Fund Advisory

·         Opening “Retail Office” in Medavakkam, Chennai by end of Jan 2016.

·         Expecting Big crash on market provided oil price is not fixed from OPEC or supply reduced to contain price decline.

·         FII investments are continuously melting due to weaken rupee and uncertainty in market

·         Bank sector loosing strength due to increase in NPA and weaken rupee

·         Power Bull reduced call quantity due to uncertainty in the market and more volatile in the points gain

·         Banks and Pharma sectors are hammered due to weaken and cyclical issue

·         Remaining sectors also corrected most in the time sequence and totally avoided high beta stocks

·         Totally given 32 calls in cash market Q3 which one of the lowest in Power Bull history due to uncertainty

2016 Begins with Blood Bath.

Just  a week gone in 2016 and the Nifty tanks  4% with the sign of strong bearish.  We anticipate the correction will be recovered based on the reversal of Crude oil price and budget forecast.

Crude oil price is the major concern to for the huge correction in the global sentiments which creates cascading effect to our market as well.  Last day crude oil break the major support of 35$ per barrel and now searching for the best support nearby.

In this best opportunity we recommend to pick fundamentally good stocks which is fairly valued by market with “Margin of Safety” price. Following “SECTORS” are lucrative to us - Media,  IT , FMCG and Pharma. Bank sector will be more attractive when rupee gets strong. Avoid stock which are technically in trend but valued high like GM Breweries, Arrow Coated plus others for time being. You can accumulate once storm is over.

 

  NIFTY New Support at 7550 points

Top 5 Watch Out Stocks for 2016

Market tanks in bigger way due to China concern. In long run the market outlooks positive to us. Upcoming earning and crude oil movement on price raise can give good hope for 2016.

Power Bull identified TOP 5 Stocks to watch out on 2016. The stocks are selected based on many parameters and subject to change based on Macro sentiments.

We expect NIFTY will test 8700 points by mid of this year.

Disclaimer: Investing on TOP 5 involves high risk and required continuous analysis. We recommend TOP 5 as watch out and price movements are subject to market risk.

Best Wishes
Narayanan
SEBI Recognized - Research Analyst

Power Bull Call history Q2 2015 - Refer PDF report in website for upcoming market views.

How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case. Robert G. Allen

Market performance in the 2nd quarter was a”BIG” turbulence and provided wide opportunity to buy stocks at a discounted priced. We strongly recommended many stocks to buy on dips during the periods of market correction. Chinese devaluation, Greece issues, FED rate hike and Oil price corrections stand to be the major reason for the market fall. Indian RBI Repo rate cut was delayed and surprised by governor later with 50 basis point cut. Automobile emission scam from Volkswagen majorly impacted the stocks like Motherson sumi and the same cascaded to other auto ancillary stocks as well. The direction of the market will depend on upcoming earnings and hope good earnings will be rewarded more in the increasing points. FII pulled out close to 17985 cr from Jul till September (Q2). This is one of the highest profit booking in the recent quarter (Q1 2015, Q4 2014). Our domestic investment looks strong on every correction and this makes our market robust and further to control the freefall from NIFTY 7600.

Current Quarter - Q3 – Oct, Nov and Dec:

We anticipate the upcoming quarter to be sluggish due to many holidays in place. Many companies will have less budget during this quarter and the spending will be lower than normal level. New initiatives using big capital will be kicked off by 1^st week of December. However on the other side, retail spending this quarter will be high, especially stocks like jewellery segment (Titan), retail showrooms and FMCG will make good show in the upcoming quarter. FMCG Promotion on boosting the product may affect the profit margin but sales on each of these companies will be great.

Car Segment: As the New Year is  about to roll on, many car showrooms will try to push the sales, which may affect the profit and some customers are more interested to buy after  the New Year and that buying delay decrease the sales as well. Overall we are maintaining neutral on Car segment.

BSE SENSEX  as on Oct 11 2015
Year	High	Low	Close	PE Ratios	PB Ratios	Dividend Yield
2015-2016**	29094.61	24833.54	27079.51	20.92	2.96	1.35
2014-2015	30024.74	22197.51	27957.49	18.73	2.94	1.29
2013-2014	22467.21	17448.71	22386.27	17.38	2.78	1.5
2012-2013	20203.66	15748.98	18835.77	17.09	2.97	1.64
2011-2012	19811.14	15135.86	17404.2	18.5	3.42	1.41

FPI/FII Net Investments  on Oct 11 2015
Month	Equity	Debt	Total(cr)	2014	Total(cr)	Up/Down
January	12919	20769	33688	Jan-2014	13323	Up
February	11476	13088	24564	Feb-2014	12741	Up
March	12078	8645	20723	Mar-2014	31663	Up
April	11721	3612	15333	Apr-2014	418	Up
May	-5768	-8504	-14272	May-2014	33778	Down
Jun	-3344	1737	-1608	Jun-2014	30705	Down
Jul	5319	4	5323	Jul-2014	36046	Down
Aug	-16877	-647	-17524	Aug-2014	22134	Down
Sep	-6475	692	-5784	Sep-2014	20972	Down
Oct**	1607	406	2013	Oct-2014	16732	**
Total	22656	39802	62456

Q2 Result Views:

We are positive on last quarter and expecting nice result on Pharma, Bank and IT. Bank should post positive results due to the decrease in repo rate cut. IT stocks will perform due to correction in rupees and more profit margin in general.  Cement sector should require more macro changes for demand.  Chinese currency devaluation may impact the book order for Indian Capital goods. So we are not positive on capital goods as well.

Q2 Quarter Overview (2nd qtr 2015):

Q2 2015 faced continuous downtrend carried over from Q1. NIFTY breached the support of 7700 points and creates little panic, however it has been quickly rolled and steady flow continued later. Q2 earning is very important to test NIFTY above 8500 points. We consider the lower limit for NIFTY should be 7600 and upper limit should be 8550 points. Topping up Sensex 28250 points required very good earnings to the EPS of 1350+.

·         Sensex and NIFTY faced close to 5%. The correction exceed to 10% during peak fall.

·         SEBI Recognized Power Bull as an “Independent Financial Fiduciary”.

·         Very first time Cash market calls are reduced and increased in derivatives due to market volatile.

·         Market will be firm and looking limited upside until earning for the company substantiate the same for PE growth.

·         Bullish on FMCG, Pharma, Bank and IT. Stay away from Steel sectors. Macro sentiments should change to go for cement sectors

·         Introduced new concept as “PB Pick” conveys our managers love to keep in portfolio for long

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